In 2012 while we lived in Ethiopia, our housekeeper’s 19-year-old daughter, Bethlehem, gave birth to a beautiful baby boy named Sofonia. Could Sofonia become as famous as Adnan Nevic? Adnan, born in Sarajevo, Bosnia in 1999, was chosen by the United Nations as the “face” of the sixth billionth person born on planet earth. I’m lobbying for Sofonia as the face of the seven billionth!
Currently the second largest population in Africa (after Nigeria), Ethiopia’s 91 million are expected to triple in only 40 years to over 270 million. Even more astounding, in 2050 Ethiopia (twice the size of Texas) will break into the exclusive club of the 10 most populated nations on earth, along with India, China and the US. Bethlehem’s baby will grow up at the epicenter of world population growth. By 2100, Africa is predicted to triple from one billion to 3.6 billion.
As Africa is exploding, the Economist reports that world population growth is slowing down. World population zoomed from five to six billion in only 12 years (think Adnan), then took just another 12 years to reach seven billion (think Sophonia). Yet it will take 13-14 years to reach eight billion and an even longer 20-25 years to reach nine billion. In fact, the world fertility rate (births per mother) fell almost 50% in the past century.
Half of the world now lives in countries with a fertility rate of 2.1 or below, the so-called “replacement rate” required to keep the population stable. While the US should remain stable, several European nations are already below the 2.1 replacement rate and will continue to shrink in coming decades.
What will this mean for Bethlehem’s baby? Take a basic question: What will Sofonia eat? Today over 80% of Ethiopia’s economy is based on primitive subsistence agriculture. A common sight driving through the countryside is farmers plowing and threshing with primitive equipment as they have for thousands of years, in scenes straight out of the Old Testament. By the time Sophonia is 40, there will be three times as many people in his already crowded country. It’s hard to imagine they can produce three times as much food in 40 years.
As a friend in the volatile Horn of Africa, Ethiopia is currently bolstered by massive Western aid. Will rich nations continue such largesse as their own aging populations become more expensive to maintain by a far smaller workforce? Booming populations in Africa, combined with shrinking populations all across the developed world, could become a perfect storm with untold consequences in the next 40 years.
What will this coming crush of people mean for political stability in poorer African nations? For distribution of scarce resources? For creating a thriving middle class? For fighting hunger and disease? The unfolding story of Bethlehem’s baby will be the story of Africa…and the story of the rest of the world as well.
Question: Will technology keep pace to solve Sofonia’s problems, as the Green Revolution helped grow more food in the last few decades? Take a moment to write a comment to share your thoughts.
